未来宽松取向明确 降息节奏充满变数

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes reveal significant internal divisions regarding the decision to lower interest rates and the potential for further cuts in December, leading to increased uncertainty about future monetary policy direction [1][2][3] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in October, bringing the target range to 3.75% to 4.0%, marking the second consecutive rate cut of the year [1] - There is a notable split among Federal Reserve members regarding the appropriateness of the October rate cut, with some members expressing support for maintaining rates unchanged [2] - The outlook for a potential December rate cut is uncertain, with some members suggesting it may be suitable if economic conditions align with expectations, while others caution against further cuts due to inflation risks [2][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The labor market is expected to soften gradually, with recent data indicating a relatively weak job market, which may support the Fed's continued accommodative stance [4] - Initial jobless claims were reported at 232,000, and continuing claims at 1.957 million, both higher than previous values, indicating labor market challenges [4] - The uncertainty surrounding key economic data, particularly employment and inflation figures, may lead the Fed to adopt a cautious approach in its December meeting [4][6] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - The current monetary policy approach is characterized as "risk management-style easing," reflecting the Fed's cautious stance amid internal disagreements on the pace of rate cuts [3][6] - The Fed's future policy path may enter a new phase, marked by a clear accommodative stance but with variable timing based on economic data performance [3] - The potential for inflation to exceed expectations poses a significant constraint on the Fed's ability to lower rates further, especially in light of the recent tariff policies [4][6]