Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-21 03:36Core Viewpoint - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tabo, highlighting its position as a leading sports retail platform in China, despite short-term fluctuations in its main brand Nike, while Adidas shows strong growth momentum [1] Business Overview - Tabo is the largest sports retail and service platform in China, partnering with major brands including Nike and Adidas, as well as others like Puma and Vans. The company anticipates a revenue decline of 7% and 6% year-on-year for FY2025 and FY2026H1, respectively, reaching 27 billion and 12.3 billion yuan. Net profit is expected to drop by 42% and 10% to 1.29 billion and 790 million yuan for the same periods [1] Brand Performance - In FY2026H1, revenue from main brands decreased by 4.8% to 10.8 billion yuan, accounting for 88% of total revenue. Adidas has consistently outperformed expectations since 2024, with a 8% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025 on a currency-neutral basis, while Nike's performance has been more volatile. Tabo has expanded its brand matrix by partnering with domestic brands like Li Ning and outdoor brands such as Kailas and Norda since 2022 [2] Retail Operations - Tabo leads the industry in retail operations, establishing a foundation for long-term growth. The company has optimized offline stores based on brand characteristics, with over 1,056 self-operated stores larger than 300 square meters by FY2023, representing 16.1% of total stores. The company is shifting to a "one product, one strategy" approach to enhance store efficiency. Tabo has also significantly increased its private domain and live e-commerce efforts, with over 3,600 mini-program stores by FY2026H1, and e-commerce sales expected to account for around 40% of total sales [3] Mid-term Trends - The launch schedule for new Nike products is expected to improve in FY2027, potentially benefiting Tabo's revenue and profit margins. Adidas continues to perform well, while Nike's performance in the Greater China region is recovering. The company anticipates that profits will remain stable in FY2026, with a positive outlook for FY2027 as new Nike products are released [4] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - Since its IPO in 2019, Tabo has maintained a cumulative dividend payout ratio of 107.3%. As of FY2026H1, the company holds 2.54 billion yuan in cash and cash equivalents. The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.297 billion, 1.481 billion, and 1.666 billion yuan for FY2026 to FY2028, with a current price corresponding to a FY2026 PE ratio of 14.6 times and a dividend yield of 7%. The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the stock [5]