Ge Long Hui·2025-11-21 03:44Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi's Q3 2025 performance shows a total revenue increase of 22% year-on-year to 113.1 billion RMB, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations, with adjusted net profit rising 80.9% year-on-year [1] Smartphone / IoT / Internet Business - Smartphone shipments reached 43.3 million units (+0.5% year-on-year), maintaining a global market share of 13.6% [2] - IoT business revenue increased by 5.6% year-on-year to 27.6 billion RMB, with a gross margin improvement of 1.4 percentage points to 23.9% [2] - Internet business revenue grew by 10.8% year-on-year to 9.4 billion RMB, maintaining a high gross margin of 76.9% [2] - The impact of storage price increases is expected to affect smartphone shipment volumes, product prices, and gross margins in the future [2] Automotive Business - The automotive business achieved a record delivery of 109,000 units in Q3 2025, with a revenue increase of 37% quarter-on-quarter to 25.9 billion RMB and a gross margin improvement of 8.4 percentage points to 25.5% [2] - The automotive segment is expected to continue its profitability trajectory, with a maintained forecast of 700,000 units for 2026 [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards by 0.3%/2.3%/1.9%, and Non-GAAP net profit forecasts have been reduced by 1.6%/7.6%/4.3% to 43.4 billion RMB, 48.2 billion RMB, and 62.4 billion RMB respectively [2] - The target price has been revised down to 53.8 HKD (previously 65.4 HKD), based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, corresponding to a 27 times PE for 2026 [2]