美联储10月货币政策会议纪要出炉：未来宽松取向明确 降息节奏充满变数

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes reveal significant internal divisions regarding the decision to lower interest rates and the potential for further cuts in December [1][2] - Nearly all participants agreed that ending the balance sheet reduction plan on December 1 is appropriate, but there were differing opinions on the October rate cut, indicating a split within the Fed [2][3] - The market's expectation for a December rate cut has decreased from 83% at the end of October to around 30%, reflecting the uncertainty in the Fed's future monetary policy direction [3][4] Group 2 - The labor market in the U.S. is showing signs of weakness, with initial jobless claims and continuing claims both higher than previous values, which may support the Fed's decision to maintain a loose monetary policy [4][5] - The uncertainty surrounding inflation targets is a significant factor that could constrain the Fed's ability to lower rates further, especially if inflation rises unexpectedly [4][6] - The political pressure from President Trump on the Fed could influence future rate cut expectations, as his control over Fed appointments may increase significantly next year [5][6]