Ge Long Hui·2025-11-21 04:00Core Viewpoint - In Q3 2025, Trip.com Group achieved revenue of 18.367 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.52%, and a Non-GAAP net profit of 19.156 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 221%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] Revenue Summary - Q3 revenue of 18.367 billion RMB surpassed guidance of 18.1 billion RMB, with transportation ticketing revenue at 6.306 billion RMB (up 11.61%), hotel revenue at 8.047 billion RMB (up 18.30%), vacation revenue at 1.606 billion RMB (up 3.08%), and business travel revenue at 0.756 billion RMB (up 5.00%) [2] - Domestic business revenue accounted for approximately 65% of total revenue, growing at nearly 10%, while outbound business revenue represented close to mid-teens percentage with similar growth [2] - Pure overseas business revenue exceeded 20% of total revenue, growing at around 40%, with Trip.com contributing about 13% and growing at 60-65% [2] Profit Summary - Gross profit for Q3 was 14.979 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.58%, with a gross margin of 81.68%, a slight decline of 0.68 percentage points [3] - Non-GAAP net profit of 19.156 billion RMB was significantly boosted by a one-time after-tax gain of approximately 13.3 billion RMB from the disposal of MMYT shares [3] - Excluding the impact of MMYT, net profit margin declined year-on-year, primarily due to the increased share of international business and higher investments [3] Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2025 and 2026 are 61.858 billion RMB and 71.929 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth of 16.06% and 16.27%, respectively [4] - Non-GAAP net profits for the same periods are expected to be 31.687 billion RMB and 23.267 billion RMB, with growth rates of 75.64% and a decline of 26.57% [4] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 715.52 HKD, corresponding to a 20X PE for 2026 [4]