午评：全球共振下市场承压，放量下跌后该不该抄底？

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.88% to 3857.24 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 2.72%, and the ChiNext Index plunging by 3.18% [1] - The trading volume reached 1.3 trillion yuan, indicating a notable increase in activity [1] - This adjustment is not an isolated event but is closely linked to the overnight decline in the US stock market [1][2] Sector Performance - Almost all sectors saw declines, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading the drop at 4.77%, and both the steel and basic chemicals sectors falling over 3.5% [1] - The electronics sector also experienced a 3.53% decline, reflecting the global weakness in semiconductors [1] - Defensive sectors showed relative resilience, highlighting a shift in capital towards safer investments [1] Policy and Strategic Insights - The rise of the China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC) by 4.7% amidst the market downturn indicates a strong performance from state-owned enterprises, driven by government policies emphasizing "military strength through technology" and "self-reliance in high-end manufacturing" [1] - The market is witnessing an increase in expectations for strategic consolidation among state-owned enterprises [1] Global Market Influence - The adjustment in the A-share market is closely tied to the significant declines in the US stock market, with the Nasdaq down by 2.15% and the S&P 500 down by 1.56% [2] - Concerns over AI valuation bubbles, a sudden drop in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and concentrated technical sell-offs are contributing to the bearish sentiment [2] - The lithium and new energy vehicle sectors have seen substantial corrections, with the lithium index plummeting by 9.43%, reflecting a market reassessment of overly optimistic expectations [2] Future Outlook - The market may enter a phase of structural differentiation, with a noticeable contraction in risk appetite and a shift towards balanced asset allocation [2] - Despite short-term external pressures, the long-term focus on new productive forces represented by technology remains unchanged, suggesting a need to wait for more favorable conditions for investment [2]