Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. employment data has significantly exceeded expectations, leading to a reduction in interest rate cut expectations for December, which has put pressure on gold prices [1][2]. Group 1: Employment Data Impact - The September non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000, far surpassing the market forecast of 50,000, while the August data was revised down to a decrease of 4,000 [1]. - The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.4%, indicating potential challenges in the labor market [1]. - The release of this employment report has prompted investors to reassess the resilience of the U.S. labor market and the subsequent policy space [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the employment report, the market's expectation for a rate cut in December has decreased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut now at approximately 39% [1]. - The Fed's cautious stance, as reiterated by several officials, aligns with the need to balance slowing job growth against persistent inflation [1]. Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Despite the pressure from changing interest rate expectations, there remains solid support for gold due to ongoing inflows of safe-haven funds amid global macro risks [2][3]. - The People's Bank of China added 1.2 tons of gold in September, marking the 12th consecutive month of gold accumulation [2]. - Gold is currently consolidating within the range of $4,080 to $4,100, with stronger employment data limiting upward movement while ongoing central bank purchases provide a reliable support base [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The direction of gold prices will depend on upcoming U.S. economic data, particularly whether signs of further economic slowdown emerge [3]. - The overall strategy suggests maintaining flexibility in positions and avoiding heavy bets on trends, focusing on event-driven phases [4].
【UNFX财经事件】政策前景再被重估 黄金延续整理格局 关注周五数据冲击
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-21 04:15