通胀升温、出口回升，日本10月经济数据令央行加息路径更明朗

Core Viewpoint - Japan's inflation rate has slightly increased, and exports have rebounded, allowing the Bank of Japan to maintain its interest rate hike plans in the coming months. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is preparing an economic plan to alleviate public discontent over rising living costs [1]. Inflation Data - The consumer price index, excluding fresh food, rose by 3% year-on-year, driven by increases in accommodation, car insurance premiums, and household durable goods. This aligns with economists' median expectations, with the previous month's increase at 2.9% [1]. - Consumer prices have remained at or above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for 43 consecutive months, marking the longest period since 1992. A more closely related price trend indicator (excluding energy) accelerated from 3% to 3.1% [2]. Export Performance - Japan's export value has increased for the second consecutive month, with a year-on-year growth of 3.6% in October, surpassing economists' expectations of 1.1%. However, exports to the U.S. have declined by 3.1% due to tariff policies [2]. - The depreciation of the yen has effectively boosted export values, although the volume of exports to the U.S. continues to show a downward trend [2]. Economic Stimulus Plan - Prime Minister Kishida is set to announce the largest fiscal spending plan since the COVID-19 pandemic, reinforcing his commitment to expansionary fiscal policy. This move signals to bond market investors that large-scale fiscal expansion will continue to exert pressure on debt financing costs [3]. - The announcement is expected to support market speculation that the Bank of Japan may raise borrowing costs in December or January [3]. Structural Inflation Dynamics - Accommodation costs increased by 8.5%, and car insurance premiums rose by 6.9%, contributing to the upward pressure on price indicators. In contrast, the price increases for processed food and energy have slowed down, exerting downward pressure on overall inflation [4]. - Electricity and natural gas subsidy policies have directly lowered the overall inflation rate by 0.26 percentage points, serving as a significant tool to curb inflation [4]. Trade and Manufacturing Insights - Japan's economy experienced its first contraction in six quarters during the summer, primarily due to weak export performance. Kishida's economic plan will include special support for businesses affected by U.S. tariff impacts [5]. - The latest trade data reveals structural differentiation in export growth, with semiconductors and other electronic components emerging as core growth drivers, showing a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, effectively offsetting declines in traditional industries [4].