Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-21 04:56Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a downward adjustment, with prices in various cities showing a consistent decline both month-on-month and year-on-year [11][12]. Price Trends - In October, the average transaction price for new homes in Nanchang was 7,887 yuan per square meter, down from the purchase price of around 9,000 yuan per square meter in 2017, indicating a slight loss but overall price stability due to the developer Vanke and nearby school districts [3]. - The listing price in October remained high at 10,251 yuan per square meter, reflecting sellers' reluctance to lower prices despite the drop in transaction prices [3]. - Nationally, new home prices in first, second, and third-tier cities fell by 0.8%, 2.0%, and 3.4% year-on-year, respectively, with third-tier cities facing more significant long-term adjustment pressures [5]. Market Dynamics - The decline in housing prices is characterized by "universal coverage but differentiated amplitude," with first-tier cities seeing a 0.3% decrease, second-tier cities a 0.4% decrease, and third-tier cities a 0.5% decrease month-on-month [4]. - The adjustment is driven by a fundamental shift in supply and demand dynamics, with a significant increase in the stock of existing homes and a shift in demand towards second-hand homes [8]. Policy Impact - Policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market have been implemented, but their effects are uneven across different cities. The sales area and sales volume of new homes have shown signs of improvement, but third-tier cities and second-hand home prices remain constrained by high inventory and insufficient demand [8][12]. Market Segmentation - The high-end market is showing resilience, with a notable increase in the sales of larger, improvement-oriented units in major cities. For instance, in 2025, the proportion of improvement-type units sold in key cities rose to 30% [11]. - The land market is increasingly concentrated in core cities, with significant price increases for land in first and second-tier cities, while third and fourth-tier cities see declines [11]. Future Outlook - The current adjustment in the real estate market is viewed as a transition from rapid growth to high-quality development, necessitating a focus on core cities and refined operations by real estate companies [12]. - Despite the overall pessimism regarding real estate, there are opportunities for buyers, particularly in core cities where the cost-effectiveness of housing is becoming more apparent [12].