杨散逸：备受瞩目的电商征税首月，为何税收未现“井喷”？

Core Insights - The "Double Eleven" shopping festival this year has shown a lukewarm performance, attributed by some to the new e-commerce tax policy, while the first month's tax revenue data presents a contradictory calm [1] Group 1: Tax Revenue Data Overview - In October 2025, the first month of the new e-commerce tax policy, the total VAT and consumption tax revenue reached 804.3 billion yuan, with VAT contributing 658.7 billion yuan and consumption tax 145.6 billion yuan [2] - Compared to September 2025, the total tax revenue increased by 27.81%, with VAT rising by 34.92% and consumption tax by 3.19%, influenced by seasonal factors such as corporate income tax prepayment and quarterly VAT declarations [3] - A comparison with July 2025 shows an 8.82% increase in total tax revenue, indicating a moderate but tangible growth due to the new policy [4] - Year-on-year, October 2025's total tax revenue grew by 6.67% compared to October 2024, with VAT increasing by 7.18% and consumption tax by 4.45% [5] Group 2: Reasons for Tax Revenue Growth Discrepancy - The e-commerce tax policy is fundamentally about compliance rather than increasing tax burdens, focusing on capturing previously lost tax revenue from online economic activities [9] - Small and micro enterprises benefit from various tax exemptions, resulting in low effective tax burdens, which mitigates the impact of the new tax policy on their operations [11][12] - The challenge of tax administration lies in accurately identifying and differentiating income sources from millions of online sellers, which complicates compliance and revenue collection [13] Group 3: Future Tax Administration Evolution - The shift from "invoice-based" to "data-driven" tax administration is crucial, as traditional methods have become ineffective in the digital economy [15] - The new e-commerce tax policy serves as a testing ground for implementing data-driven tax management, which could significantly reduce tax evasion risks [16] - A transparent and traceable economic system is essential for fiscal revenue and reflects the modernization of national governance capabilities in the digital age [16]