中极氢能段晚儿：未来3—5年氢能汽车逐步缩小与燃油车成本差距

Core Viewpoint - The hydrogen energy vehicle sector is characterized by commercial vehicles leading the way, policy-driven growth, and accelerated technological breakthroughs, with expectations for hydrogen applications in transportation to achieve lower lifecycle costs than fuel vehicles by the mid-point of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][2]. Group 1: Market Development - As of July 2025, the cumulative sales of fuel cell vehicles in China are projected to reach 30,000 units, with over 90% localization of fuel cell systems [1]. - The 300kW fuel cell system has achieved a hydrogen consumption of 8kg per 100km and a range of 700km [1]. - Commercialization has been established in mid-to-long-distance heavy-load scenarios such as trunk logistics, cold chain logistics, and mining port applications [1]. Group 2: Infrastructure and Policy - There are nearly 600 hydrogen refueling stations nationwide, with over 10 provinces implementing free ETC policies for hydrogen vehicles, although regional coverage remains insufficient [1]. - The hydrogen industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan needs to address issues such as cost competitiveness, storage and transportation bottlenecks, standards and safety, industrial chain collaboration, and regional mismatches [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - In the next 3-5 years, fuel cell vehicles are expected to narrow the cost gap with fuel vehicles through technological iterations, focused application scenarios, and policy collaboration, creating a complementary relationship with pure electric vehicles in differentiated scenarios [2]. - The hydrogen industry is transitioning from demonstration and exploration to large-scale commercialization, requiring policy support to enhance technological innovation, improve infrastructure, establish a sound standard system, optimize regulation, and strengthen regional collaboration and international layout to achieve carbon neutrality goals [2].