普徕仕：美联储政策走向不明引发市场担忧 维持偏高配置中国股票

Core Viewpoint - The investment outlook for Asian investors is cautious due to economic uncertainty and fluctuating market expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's policy direction is unclear, with increasing concerns about its impact on the market [1] - Discrepancies among Federal Open Market Committee members highlight the uncertainty in economic forecasts, with some advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut while others oppose any cuts [1] - Fed Chair Powell warned that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed, contributing to market anxiety [1] Group 2: Market Performance - U.S. equities have rebounded nearly 40% from their "liberation day" lows but have recently become more volatile [1] - Concerns are growing over high valuations, skepticism regarding AI spending, and issues related to AI infrastructure debt financing [1] - Factors such as a recent government shutdown, weakening private sector employment data, declining consumer confidence, and unclear Fed policy are deepening market worries [1] Group 3: Corporate Earnings and Investment Strategy - Corporate earnings remain strong, and M&A activity is on the rise, supported by fiscal and monetary policy [2] - AI spending is identified as a key driver of economic growth, corporate earnings, and market performance, offsetting weaknesses in real estate, manufacturing, and the job market [2] - The company maintains a neutral stance on risk assets while closely monitoring economic sector disparities [2] Group 4: Stock Market Preferences - The company holds a neutral position on U.S. equities across market capitalizations, noting that while large caps may benefit from AI optimism, small caps present attractive valuations and could benefit from lower interest rates and increased M&A/IPO activity [2] - A higher allocation to Chinese stocks is maintained, with technology expected to be a key growth driver for China [2] - The company is underweight on U.S. long-term Treasuries due to potential upward pressure on yields from U.S. government financing needs [2]