Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) appreciated against the US dollar after two days of decline, influenced by the release of the preliminary November PMI data, which showed an increase in manufacturing PMI to 51.6 from 49.7 and services PMI rising from 52.5 to 52.7 [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to maintain interest rates if economic data continues to exceed expectations, as indicated in the meeting minutes [1][3] - The ASX 30-day bank cash rate futures indicate an 8% probability of a rate adjustment at the next RBA meeting, with the current cash rate at 3.60% [1] Group 2 - The US dollar (USD) depreciated against the Chinese yuan (CNY), with market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate adjustment increasing, as reflected in the CME FedWatch tool showing a rise in the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December from 30% to 36% [2] - The US non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000 in September, surpassing market expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.4% [2] - The People's Bank of China maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.00% for one year and 3.50% for five years, which may impact the Australian dollar due to trade relations [2] Group 3 - The Australian wage price index grew by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter and 3.4% year-on-year in Q3, aligning with expectations [3] - RBA's November meeting minutes indicated a more balanced policy stance, suggesting that if economic data remains strong, the cash rate may be held steady for a longer period [3] Group 4 - Technically, the AUD/USD is in a sideways consolidation phase, trading around 0.6450, with the first support level at 0.6440 and a lower reference at 0.6414 [5] - The upper resistance levels to watch are the 9-day moving average at 0.6487 and the psychological level at 0.6500, with a potential return to the upper range at 0.6630 if surpassed [5]
BBMarkets：澳大利亚元保持稳定，只因制造业PMI上升？