海外股市震荡致短期扰动 A股中长期向好趋势未改

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in global markets has led to a significant short-term impact on A-shares, but the long-term bullish trend remains intact [1][2][3]. Short-term Disturbances - The fluctuations in the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy expectations have caused sharp movements in the U.S. dollar and treasury yields, leading to rapid capital shifts between developed and emerging markets, which in turn affects A-shares [2]. - A-shares are expected to oscillate within the range of 3950-4060 points in the short term, with a balanced market style [2]. - Concerns over the valuation bubble in U.S. tech stocks have led to a sell-off, which may suppress the performance of A-share technology stocks [2][3]. Long-term Value of A-shares - Despite the short-term pressures from overseas market fluctuations, A-shares have shown resilience, with key indices experiencing less than 3% volatility since October, significantly lower than indices like the Nasdaq [3]. - The strong resilience of A-shares is viewed as a positive signal for long-term investment, supported by ongoing technological upgrades and industrial transformation [3]. - Continuous support for hard technology and high-end manufacturing, along with sustained inflows of medium to long-term capital, enhances the long-term bullish narrative for A-shares [3][4]. Future Market Performance - Positive drivers for the A-share market are expected to persist through 2025, including advancements in innovation sectors like AI, supportive policies for private enterprises, fiscal expansion, and ample liquidity in a loose monetary environment [4].