尚品宅配(300616)2025年三季报点评:Q3业绩扭亏为盈 期间费用率收窄

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant narrowing of revenue decline in Q3 2025, driven by AI empowerment and channel optimization, indicating a strategic shift towards "whole-house star-level customization" to meet consumer demands [2][3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.55 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -79 million yuan and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of -91 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year revenue decline of 6.7% but a narrowing of losses [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 1 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1 million yuan and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of -3 million yuan, showing a year-on-year revenue decline of 2.3% but a return to profitability [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on product upgrades through integrated solutions for doors, walls, and cabinets, which cater to home decoration needs, resulting in a significant reduction in revenue decline to -2.34% in Q3 2025 [2]. - AI-driven operational enhancements are being implemented to improve design efficiency, reduce labor costs, and minimize raw material waste, contributing to an increase in gross margin [2]. Channel Development - The company is deepening its presence in the domestic market through initiatives like the "Study Tour" for recruitment, with a total of 21 direct-operated stores and 1,823 franchise stores as of the first half of 2025, optimizing store structure [2]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 32.5%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.6 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.8 percentage points [2]. - The company achieved a net profit margin of 0.1% in Q3 2025, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Investment Outlook - As a leading player in the custom home furnishing industry, the company is expected to see a turning point in profitability due to improved channel quality and an increase in high-ticket orders, with projected net profits of -43 million yuan, 62 million yuan, and 107 million yuan for 2025-2027 [3]. - The target price is set at 17.9 yuan per share, maintaining a "strong buy" rating based on absolute valuation methods [3].