标普分析师胡丹：光伏从成本与规模 转向系统与消纳

Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a phase adjustment in 2025, reflecting supply-demand imbalances and disordered competition, yet the underlying demand for global energy transition remains strong due to climate goals and energy security [1] - Future opportunities will favor companies with integrated capabilities in technology, systems, and globalization, capable of deepening technological innovation and adapting to local market policies [2] Industry Trends - In China, renewable energy has transitioned from being an "auxiliary power source" to a "main power source," marking a significant change in the energy structure [3] - The global photovoltaic installed capacity is projected to grow from 150 GW in 2020 to nearly 600 GW in 2025, reflecting a fourfold increase over five years, significantly outpacing other energy forms [3] - By 2025, global photovoltaic installations are expected to surpass coal power for the first time, establishing photovoltaics as the dominant force in new power installations [3] System Integration and Storage - The industry is shifting focus from merely increasing installed capacity to enhancing system integration and consumption capabilities [4] - Energy storage is becoming increasingly critical, with the consensus that "solar and storage are inseparable," as it helps stabilize photovoltaic output and supports high-quality renewable energy development [4] Market Dynamics - The U.S., China, and Europe remain the core engines for global photovoltaic and storage development, each experiencing different policy and market transformations [5] - In China, the photovoltaic market is showing a "high peak and subsequent decline" trend, with new installed capacity facing pressure due to policy changes and market integration [5] - Europe is witnessing a surge in demand for photovoltaic and household storage, with large-scale storage expected to see explosive growth in 2025-2026 [5] Emerging Markets - Despite challenges such as trade barriers and policy uncertainties, the U.S. remains the highest-value renewable energy market, holding strategic significance for Chinese companies [6] - Emerging markets like Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and parts of Africa are showing strong growth potential in the photovoltaic sector, becoming new hotspots for global industry layout [6] - China's renewable energy industry maintains robust global competitiveness, supported by a comprehensive ecosystem that includes raw material supply, advanced manufacturing, and technological innovation [6]