中航证券：产业呈现“基本面修复+事件催化”态势 商业航天拐点有望临近

Core Viewpoint - The commercial aerospace industry is experiencing a dual characteristic of "fundamental recovery + event catalysis" in October, driven by satellite launch progress and favorable policies, with a positive outlook for upstream sectors like satellite and rocket manufacturing [1] Industry Performance - As of October 31, 2025, the commercial aerospace sector's listed companies have shown positive signs of order recovery, indicating an approaching industry turning point [2] - Profitability across various segments has improved, with satellite manufacturing returning to profitability, satellite communication revenues increasing, and satellite navigation maintaining stable performance [2] - The asset-liability situation shows clear signs of order recovery, with positive growth in contract liabilities, prepayments, and inventory across segments, suggesting a potential revenue and performance growth turning point in the industry [2] Recent Developments - The technology for reusable rockets is entering a phase of intensive test flights, with several models expected to launch between late 2025 and early 2026, marking a critical turning point for the commercial aerospace sector [2] - The construction of low-orbit satellite internet constellations is accelerating, with significant launches completed, indicating a rapid development phase for China's national low-orbit satellite internet constellation [3] - The opening of satellite operation licenses and national top-level design is creating a synergistic effect, leading to diversified commercial models in satellite communication [3] IPO Activity - Multiple commercial aerospace companies, including Blue Arrow Aerospace and others, have initiated IPO counseling, indicating a trend towards attracting "patient capital" into key technology sectors [4] Investment Focus - Companies involved in satellite manufacturing and satellite internet are expected to see structural growth opportunities as satellite constellations accelerate [5] - Companies intersecting with strategic emerging industries like smart driving and low-altitude economy are likely to gain increased attention due to their relevance to the commercial aerospace sector [5] - Companies that may benefit from special premiums related to market value management are expected to engage in mergers and acquisitions to enhance market expectations and investor communication [6]