巴西咖啡供应告急，这杯越南咖啡却卖爆全球

Core Insights - Arabica coffee futures in New York have reached a historic high of $4.36 per pound, marking a nearly 4% increase from the record set in February 2023, indicating a shift towards coffee becoming a "luxury good" [1] - Brazil, the largest coffee producer, is facing severe drought and extreme heat, leading to warnings of an unprecedented global supply shortage that may not recover until 2029-2030 [1] - In contrast, Vietnam's coffee industry is thriving, with exports reaching approximately 1.25 million tons and over $7 billion in revenue in the first nine months of 2025, significantly surpassing the previous year's records [1] Group 1 - Vietnam is projected to maintain its position as the world's second-largest coffee producer, accounting for 17% of global coffee production, with a cultivation area of about 732,000 hectares and an average yield of 2.9 tons per hectare [1] - The European Union is the largest market for Vietnamese coffee, with Germany, Italy, and Spain being the top three markets, collectively accounting for about 40% of Vietnam's coffee exports [1] - The potential for Vietnam's coffee industry to exceed $8 billion in revenue during the 2024-2025 planting season is highlighted, indicating strong growth prospects [1] Group 2 - The geographical advantages of Vietnam for coffee cultivation are noted, with the southern region suitable for Robusta coffee and the northern region for Arabica coffee [2] - The U.S. plans to impose a 20% tariff on Vietnamese coffee, which, although lower than the initially proposed 46%, may still impact its competitiveness [2] - The upcoming EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is expected to affect over 600,000 Vietnamese coffee farmers by prohibiting the sale of products linked to deforestation in the EU [2] Group 3 - The signing of the upgraded China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 agreement is expected to increase the presence of Southeast Asian coffee in Chinese markets, suggesting a potential for local coffee cultivation and export to China [3] - Recommendations include establishing coffee processing zones at the Yunnan port to create a model of "ASEAN raw materials + Chinese processing," which could lower supply chain costs and meet the demand of the large Chinese market [3] - Vietnam's coffee industry is focusing on deep processing and enhancing supply chain transparency, aiming to leverage multiple free trade agreements to access high-end markets in Europe, Japan, South Korea, and China [3]