资管巨头Vanguard：市场对美联储降息定价过高了

Group 1 - Vanguard believes that the "massive" spending surge on AI infrastructure will drive strong growth in the US economy, with the Federal Reserve's rate cuts being less than Wall Street expects [1][2] - Sara Devereux, Vanguard's fixed income head, predicts only one to two more rate cuts after two 25 basis point cuts this fall, contrasting with market expectations of three to four cuts by the end of 2026 [1][2] - Devereux highlights an 8% growth in AI capital expenditures this year, which is expected to support economic growth by 2.25% by 2026, limiting the Fed's ability to ease policy without triggering inflation [1][2] Group 2 - Vanguard has significantly raised its GDP forecast for the US, projecting a growth of 1.9% this year and accelerating to 2.25% by 2026, primarily based on AI capital spending [2] - The optimistic outlook on AI spending contrasts with recent concerns among investors regarding the overvaluation of tech stocks, as evidenced by a 7% decline in the Nasdaq Composite Index this month [2] Group 3 - Devereux warns that the corporate bond market may face challenges due to an oversupply, with an estimated $1.8 trillion in corporate bond issuance expected by 2026 [3] - Despite the supply pressure, recent defaults in the subprime auto finance sector are viewed as isolated incidents rather than indicative of broader market issues [3] - Vanguard maintains an overweight position in credit bonds, although the degree of overweight is below the average level during the cycle, citing tight valuations and significant supply [3]