华尔街太乐观？先锋集团警示：美联储降息幅度将远低于预期！

Core Viewpoint - Vanguard predicts that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts will be fewer than Wall Street expects, driven by strong economic growth fueled by significant spending in the artificial intelligence sector [2]. Economic Growth Forecast - Vanguard expects the U.S. economic growth rate to be 1.9% this year, accelerating to 2.25% by 2026, based on the assumption of continued rapid growth in AI infrastructure spending [3]. - AI capital expenditures have increased by approximately 8% this year, with expectations to maintain similar levels next year, supporting growth without triggering inflation [3]. Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - Vanguard's fixed income head, Sara Devereux, anticipates only one to two more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, contrasting with market expectations of three to four cuts by the end of 2026 [2]. - The Fed may reach a "neutral" interest rate by mid-next year, where borrowing costs neither accelerate nor decelerate economic growth [2]. Market Sentiment and Risks - Despite Vanguard's optimistic outlook on AI spending, there is a prevailing anxiety among investors regarding the tech sector, as evidenced by a 7% drop in the Nasdaq Composite Index this month [3]. - Concerns have arisen over corporate bond prices due to the issuance of large amounts of debt by major tech companies, which may impact corporate bond prices in the coming months [3][4]. Credit Market Positioning - Vanguard maintains an overweight position in credit, although the current level of overweight is below the average for the entire cycle, indicating tight valuations and significant supply [4]. - Recent bankruptcies in the subprime auto loan sector are viewed as isolated incidents rather than indicative of broader market troubles [4].