Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-21 07:55Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum (601600) shares have dropped over 5%, currently trading at 10.58 HKD with a transaction volume of 787 million HKD. Goldman Sachs maintains a bearish outlook on aluminum prices, predicting a decline to 2350 USD/ton by Q4 2026, with recovery not expected until the early next decade [1]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs expects the aluminum market to shift to oversupply due to new supply, despite demand being supported by factors similar to copper and substitution effects [1]. - Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about the aluminum industry's prospects for next year, forecasting moderate oversupply from new Indonesian supply in 2026, but notes potential supply disruption risks and a slower restart of overseas capacity could tighten market supply beyond baseline predictions [1].