Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-21 08:04Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum (02600) has seen a decline of over 5%, currently trading at HKD 10.58 with a transaction volume of HKD 787 million. Goldman Sachs maintains a bearish outlook on aluminum prices, predicting a drop to USD 2,350 per ton by Q4 2026, with recovery not expected until the early next decade [1][1][1]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs expects the aluminum market to shift to oversupply due to new supply, despite demand benefiting from factors similar to copper and substitution effects. However, aluminum will not face the resource constraints that copper does [1][1][1]. - Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about the aluminum industry's prospects for next year, forecasting moderate oversupply from new supply in Indonesia by 2026. However, potential supply disruption risks and a slower restart of overseas capacity may lead to tighter market conditions than baseline predictions [1][1][1].