美国对俄石油制裁生效在即 全球740万桶/日供应面临重构

Core Points - The U.S. government announced sanctions on two major Russian oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, effective November 21, which has caused significant disruption in the energy market [1][2] - The sanctions aim to limit Russia's oil and gas tax revenue, which constitutes about a quarter of the Russian federal budget, in response to President Putin's refusal to cease military actions in Ukraine [3][5] - The sanctions may lead to increased competition for oil from other producing countries, potentially driving up global oil prices if India and China fully boycott Russian oil [1][7] Sanction Details - The U.S. Treasury sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil, along with any entities directly or indirectly owned 50% or more by these companies [2] - All U.S. entities and individuals are prohibited from engaging in transactions with the sanctioned entities, and non-U.S. entities may also face penalties for business dealings with them [2] - The sanctions follow earlier measures targeting other Russian oil companies and are part of a broader strategy to limit Russia's energy revenue [2][5] Implications of New Sanctions - The sanctions represent a shift in U.S. policy, moving from a price cap mechanism to direct sanctions on Russian oil companies [5] - The price cap, set at $60 per barrel, was designed to limit Russia's energy income while preventing significant disruptions in global oil supply [5] - Despite sanctions, China and India continue to import significant volumes of Russian oil, with daily imports reaching approximately 2.8 million barrels [6] Impact on Russia - There are indications that the sanctions are affecting Russia, with a decline in maritime oil exports and a drop in oil prices leading to reduced fiscal revenue [7] - The Kremlin's financial income has reportedly fallen to its lowest level in two and a half years, averaging around $1.2 billion per week [7] - The effectiveness of the sanctions will largely depend on whether Indian refiners follow through on their commitments to reduce imports [7] Effects on India - India has reduced its procurement of Russian oil for December and most refiners plan to cease receiving Russian oil after the transition period [11] - Reliance Industries announced it would stop processing Russian oil at its Jamnagar refinery, which has a capacity of 1.4 million barrels per day [11] - Reducing imports from Russia may facilitate trade agreements between the U.S. and India, potentially leading to the removal of punitive tariffs previously imposed on India for purchasing Russian oil [11]