STARTRADER：美联储降息预期降温，黄金的“避风港”效应还灵吗？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are under pressure due to a stronger US dollar and reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, despite some support from geopolitical uncertainties and economic concerns related to the US government shutdown [1][3] - The latest non-farm payroll report showed an addition of 119,000 jobs in September, significantly above the market expectation of 50,000, with average hourly earnings increasing by 3.8% year-on-year, which is slightly higher than the expected 3.7% [1] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.4%, but overall labor market data remains robust, leading to a decreased probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, currently estimated at about 35% [1] Group 2 - Gold prices are currently hovering around $4,020, which is close to a one-month upward trendline support area and coincides with the 200-period exponential moving average, forming a significant support zone [3] - If gold prices break below this support area, they may further decline to below the psychological level of $4,000, potentially approaching $3,931 or the October low of $3,886 [3] - On the upside, if prices steadily break above $4,100 and gain confirmation, they may test the $4,152-$4,155 range and could approach the $4,200 round number [3]