Core Viewpoint - The report from Xingsheng International maintains an "overweight" rating for Datang Renewable (01798), noting a slight increase in revenue for the first three quarters, but a year-on-year decline in net profit primarily due to falling electricity prices and credit impairment provisions. The company's wind and solar power generation has significantly increased, especially wind power, which grew over 70% year-on-year, while cash flow has improved substantially due to accelerated national subsidy payments [1]. Performance Summary - As of the end of Q3 2025, Datang Renewable achieved operating revenue of 9.409 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.56% (or 323 million yuan), and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.653 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.59% (or 217 million yuan). In Q3 alone, the company reported operating revenue of 2.564 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.25% (or 105 million yuan), but a net profit of -35 million yuan, compared to 105 million yuan in the same period last year [2]. - The decline in performance is attributed to falling electricity prices and credit impairment provisions, with the company recording a credit impairment provision of 102 million yuan in the first three quarters, compared to a reversal of 38 million yuan in the same period last year. The average revenue per kilowatt-hour in Q3 decreased by 0.04 yuan compared to the previous year, with a more significant decline than in the first half of the year [2]. Cash Flow Analysis - The acceleration of national subsidy payments has led to a significant improvement in cash flow. As of the end of Q3, the company's accounts receivable and notes receivable balance was 21.6 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 2.8 billion yuan from the end of the first half. The operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 7.890 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.35%, while capital expenditures were 4.293 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50.91%. The ratio of accounts receivable to total market value is approximately 130% based on the closing price on November 12 [3]. Investment Recommendation - The report maintains an "overweight" rating, indicating that while short-term performance may be pressured by fluctuations in green electricity prices, the company is expected to maintain a competitive advantage as a leading wind power enterprise. The cash flow flexibility from national subsidy payments is also viewed positively. The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 1.694 billion, 1.751 billion, and 1.911 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -9.7%, +2.7%, and +7.2%, respectively. The corresponding PE valuations based on the closing price on November 18, 2025, are projected to be 7.3x, 7.1x, and 6.6x [4].
兴证国际：维持大唐新能源“增持”评级 Q3业绩承压但现金流大幅改善