“高市策略”可能加速破灭，日本恐怕面临“三重下跌”？

Group 1 - The Japanese government is expected to announce a long-awaited economic stimulus plan, which poses a significant market test for Prime Minister Sanna Takashi, amid concerns that the spending plan may worsen Japan's fiscal situation and lead to a sell-off in government bonds and a weaker yen [2][4] - There are fears that the stimulus plan could lead to a "triple decline" where stocks, bonds, and the yen all fall simultaneously, reminiscent of the market turmoil experienced in the UK under Liz Truss in 2022 [8] - The stimulus plan may boost domestic consumption and investment, helping Japan's economy cope with external risks from global economic slowdown, but it raises concerns about fiscal sustainability due to Japan's already high public debt, exceeding 260% of GDP [4][10] Group 2 - The stimulus plan presents challenges for the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike prospects, as it may increase domestic demand and lead to persistent inflation, complicating the central bank's path to normalizing monetary policy [6] - The ongoing depreciation of the yen raises import costs, contributing to input inflation that could squeeze household and corporate profits, potentially leading to a loss of confidence in fiscal policy and uncontrolled bond yields [6][10] - The recent cross-asset sell-off highlights the fragility of the "Takashi trade" strategy, which had previously driven the Japanese stock market to record highs, but has since seen the Nikkei 225 index erase all gains since Takashi's election [6][10]