“农民进城买房，开车回家种地”，“以房留人”，真的可行么？

Core Viewpoint - The proposal of "encouraging farmers to buy houses in cities to stabilize the real estate market" is being debated, but its feasibility is questioned given the current economic conditions and farmers' financial capabilities [5][11][39]. Market Conditions - The national real estate market has been experiencing a downturn, with continuous declines in sales volume and area since 2022, and the trend has not reversed as of mid-2025, with sales area down 12.3% and sales revenue down 14.1% year-on-year [7][9]. - As of the end of 2024, the inventory of commercial housing in third and fourth-tier cities is approximately 450 million square meters, leading to a depletion cycle of 36 months, significantly exceeding the reasonable level of 12-18 months [9][12]. Urbanization and Housing Demand - The core logic behind the proposal is based on urbanization, with a current urbanization rate of about 65% and a projected increase to around 75% in the next decade, potentially leading to 150 million rural residents migrating to urban areas [11][12]. - Supporters argue that this influx could create substantial housing demand, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities, helping to absorb local housing inventory [14]. Financial Capability of Farmers - The average disposable income for rural residents is projected to be around 23,000 yuan annually, while average housing prices in third and fourth-tier cities range from 5,000 to 8,000 yuan per square meter [16][19]. - For a typical rural family of three looking to purchase an 80 square meter home, the total cost would be approximately 400,000 to 640,000 yuan, requiring a down payment of 12,000 to 192,000 yuan, which could take 4 to 9 years to save [18][21]. Living Costs and Employment Challenges - Transitioning to urban life presents significant challenges, including higher living costs and limited job opportunities, as many rural residents lack specialized skills and face competition from urban job seekers [24][28]. - The perception that urban living provides better access to public resources is often misleading, as quality services are typically concentrated in major cities, leaving third and fourth-tier cities with limited offerings [30]. Housing Market Dynamics - The assumption that urbanization will lead to a housing boom is flawed, as over 70% of rural migrants prefer renting rather than buying homes, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities where rental markets are robust [41]. - The current oversupply of housing is a long-term issue stemming from excessive development in lower-tier cities, and even with some rural residents buying homes, it would not significantly alleviate the inventory problem [38][39]. Conclusion - The stability of the real estate market relies on broader economic recovery, income growth, and practical actions from real estate companies, rather than solely on the influx of rural buyers [53][55].