百利好晚盘分析：非农数据靓丽 金价面临调整

Gold Market - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September unexpectedly increased by 119,000, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 50,000 and the previous value of 22,000 [1] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 4.3%, marking a four-year high [1] - The largest gold ETF reported a reduction of 4.29 tons in holdings on November 20, indicating a lack of bullish sentiment in the short-term gold market [1] - Analyst Chen Yu believes that the resilient U.S. job market may suppress expectations for future Fed rate cuts, putting short-term pressure on gold prices [1] - Despite high U.S. debt and declining dollar credibility, gold prices are expected to have long-term upward potential [1] - Technical analysis shows a weak short-term outlook for gold, with prices failing to break above the 62-day moving average and a likelihood of further declines [1] Oil Market - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that Russia's oil production forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at 510 million tons, unaffected by Western sanctions [2] - The potential for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, with negotiations expected to conclude by the end of November, may exert downward pressure on oil prices [2] - The current risk of oversupply in the oil market suggests that oil prices are likely to remain under pressure in the near term [3] - Technical indicators show a bearish outlook for oil prices, with the 20-day moving average and 62-day moving average forming a death cross [3] U.S. Dollar Index - Recent U.S. economic data presents mixed signals, with job growth but a rising unemployment rate, which may hinder further Fed rate cuts [4] - There is significant division among Fed officials regarding future rate cuts, with a general hawkish tone suggesting a cooling of rate cut expectations for December [4] - The dollar is likely to maintain a strong position due to these factors and potential further depreciation of the yen [4] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish short-term outlook for the dollar, with prices above the 20-day and 62-day moving averages [5] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown some rebound in the past two trading days but is at risk of further decline, potentially forming a "downward three methods" pattern [6] - The index is currently trading below the 20-day moving average, indicating a short-term bearish sentiment [6] Copper Market - The copper market experienced a slight rebound but remains below the 20-day moving average, indicating potential for further declines [7] - Attention is on the resistance level at $4.99 for any potential upward movement [7] Market Overview - The U.S. stock market saw declines across major indices, with the Nasdaq dropping over 2% [9] - Ukrainian President Zelensky received a U.S. peace plan draft and is expected to consult with Trump soon [9]