美债收益率能否回落至3.9%？北欧斯安银行最新预测引发关注，一文读懂其背后逻辑

Core Viewpoint - The report from SEB indicates that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is expected to decline to approximately 3.9% by Q1 2026, although current market conditions present challenges to this forecast [2][3] Group 1: Market Conditions and Predictions - The key to achieving the 3.9% yield target lies in the market's re-establishment of confidence in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path [2] - Recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have made investors more cautious about future monetary policy directions, keeping yields at relatively high levels [2][3] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is a crucial benchmark rate that reflects investor expectations regarding the U.S. economy and policy, influencing global financing costs and asset pricing [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - SEB maintains a baseline scenario of a shift to a more accommodative policy stance within the next three to four months, driven by declining inflation, moderate job growth, and slowing economic activity [3] - A downward adjustment in interest rate expectations typically leads to a more relaxed financial environment, increasing demand for long-term bonds and pushing yields lower [3] - The resilience of the U.S. economy suggests that any adjustments in yields may occur gradually rather than abruptly [3] Group 3: Future Influences on Yield - Key factors influencing the U.S. Treasury yield in the coming months will include Federal Reserve statements, inflation data, and economic activity indicators [3] - The ability of yields to decline to the anticipated 3.9% will depend on the clarity of policy signals and the market's confidence in the future interest rate path [3]