Core Viewpoint - European natural gas prices have reached an 18-month low due to warmer weather forecasts and the potential for a peace plan regarding Ukraine, which may impact supply and demand dynamics in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent weather forecasts indicate a rise in temperatures, leading to a decrease in heating demand, which has pushed benchmark futures prices to their lowest level since May 2024 [1]. - The market has broken out of a narrow trading range due to ongoing ample natural gas supply and new developments in diplomatic negotiations related to Ukraine [1]. - Traders are closely monitoring the situation, as a potential peace agreement with Russia could ease sanctions and improve the supply outlook for Europe [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Despite European natural gas inventories being below historical averages, there is growing confidence among traders that global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies will be sufficient to help Europe through the winter [2]. - The latest weather models predict warmer temperatures in Northwestern and Central Europe, which may alleviate market pressures following a recent cold snap that increased gas demand [2]. - As of the latest report, the benchmark Dutch near-term natural gas futures price has decreased by 0.88%, settling at €30.43 per megawatt-hour [3].
天气转暖叠加乌克兰和平方案前景 欧洲天然气价格创18个月新低
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-21 09:33