Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-21 09:30Core Viewpoint - Guosheng Securities has given Xiaomi Group-W (01810) a target price of HKD 52 and reiterated a "Buy" rating, citing strong Q3 performance with a 22.3% year-on-year revenue growth to CNY 113.1 billion and a record adjusted net profit of CNY 11.3 billion, up 80.9% year-on-year, driven by the high-end smartphone strategy and automotive business [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Xiaomi Group achieved revenue of CNY 113.1 billion, a 22.3% increase year-on-year. Revenue breakdown includes approximately CNY 46 billion from smartphones, CNY 27.6 billion from IoT, CNY 9.4 billion from internet services, and CNY 29 billion from automotive and AI businesses. The adjusted net profit reached CNY 11.3 billion, marking a historical high with an 80.9% year-on-year growth [2]. Business Aspects - Smartphones: Xiaomi continues to push for high-end market penetration, with global smartphone shipments reaching 43.3 million units, a 0.5% year-on-year increase. The company holds approximately 13.6% of the global market share, ranking in the top three, and 16.7% in mainland China, ranking second. High-end smartphone sales in mainland China accounted for 24.1% of total sales, with a market share of 18.9% in the CNY 4,000-6,000 price range. The Xiaomi 17 series, particularly the Pro and Pro Max models, accounted for over 80% of sales, indicating an optimized product structure [3]. - IoT: Xiaomi's AIoT platform has surpassed 1 billion connected devices, reflecting a 20.2% year-on-year growth. The company ranks first in global shipments of wearable wristbands and second in TWS earphones. The launch of a smart home appliance factory in October 2025 marks a significant step in closing the design, R&D, production, and validation loop for its major appliance business [3]. Automotive and AI Innovation - Xiaomi's automotive and AI innovation business achieved its first quarterly profit, with approximately 109,000 vehicles delivered, setting a new record. The Xiaomi YU7 series ranked first in the SUV sales chart in mainland China in October 2025, with operating income from this segment reaching approximately CNY 700 million [4]. Profit Forecast and Rating - Guosheng Securities anticipates that Xiaomi Group will maintain relative competitiveness in the face of short-term industry disruptions, given its leading market share and successful high-end strategy. The company projects revenues of CNY 470 billion, CNY 557 billion, and CNY 694 billion for 2025-2027, with non-GAAP net profits of approximately CNY 44 billion, CNY 50.1 billion, and CNY 65 billion respectively. The target price of HKD 52 is based on a 20x P/E for the consumer electronics segment and a 2.5x P/S for the automotive and AI innovation business, reaffirming the "Buy" rating [5].