又见暴跌，这波全球流动性杀什么时候结束？

Core Viewpoint - The current global liquidity crisis is primarily driven by the U.S. government shutdown and the Federal Reserve's uncertain monetary policy, leading to widespread declines in various asset classes, including stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies, while the U.S. dollar index rises above 100 [1][2][7]. Group 1: Causes of Global Liquidity Crisis - The liquidity crisis began with the U.S. government shutdown, which prevented the flow of funds into the market, causing short-term borrowing rates to spike [2][4]. - The Federal Reserve's meeting on October 30 further exacerbated the situation, as Chairman Powell indicated uncertainty regarding future interest rate cuts, which led to a loss of market confidence [2][6]. - The failure of the U.S. Senate to pass a funding bill on November 4 intensified market fears, resulting in a significant sell-off across various asset classes [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Following the government shutdown's resolution, the market initially rebounded; however, the lack of timely economic data and increasing divisions among Federal Reserve officials created further uncertainty [6][7]. - The announcement that the October non-farm payroll data would not be released until December contributed to a decline in the probability of interest rate cuts, with the likelihood dropping to 32% [7][9]. - The market's focus has shifted back to liquidity concerns, with the potential for a more severe downturn if economic data continues to show weakness [10][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The liquidity crisis is expected to end around mid-December, coinciding with the release of significant economic data, including employment reports, which are anticipated to be poor due to the government shutdown's impact [12][15]. - The Federal Reserve is likely to halt its balance sheet reduction by December 1, which may lead to a resumption of asset purchases if economic conditions worsen [13][14]. - The recovery of global liquidity could prompt investment opportunities across various markets, including U.S. stocks, A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks, depending on the timing and nature of the economic data released [16].