世界黄金协会：10月上游黄金需求逆季节性走强

Core Insights - In October, upstream physical gold demand showed a seasonally strong performance, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) gold outflow reaching 124 tons, an increase of 6 tons month-on-month and a slight increase of 17 tons year-on-year, indicating a rise in gold investment enthusiasm [1][4] - Gold prices continued to rise in October, with the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) price increasing by 4.9% and the Shanghai afternoon benchmark price rising by 5.5%. The market experienced volatility, with prices initially surging due to ETF buying and rising risks, followed by a correction in the latter half of the month due to easing geopolitical risks and profit-taking [2][4] Upstream Physical Gold Demand - The SGE gold outflow in October reached 124 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6 tons and a year-on-year increase of 17 tons, driven by heightened investment interest [4] - The increase in demand is attributed to factors such as escalating US-China trade tensions and a cooling domestic stock market, which contributed to rising gold prices [4] Gold ETF Flow and Price Trends - In October, China's gold ETF inflow was approximately 1 billion RMB, marking the strongest monthly performance since April, with total assets under management (AUM) increasing by 24% [6][8] - The total holdings surged by 33 tons to 227 tons, indicating significant growth in demand for gold ETFs in the Chinese market [8] Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) increased its gold reserves for the 12th consecutive month, purchasing 0.9 tons in October. Since early 2025, the official gold reserves have increased by approximately 24 tons, accounting for 8% of total foreign exchange reserves [10][12] Recent Trends in Gold Imports - In September, China's net gold imports reached 93 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5 tons and a year-on-year increase of 36 tons, aligning with observed patterns in upstream physical gold demand [14] Future Outlook - Recent changes in China's value-added tax policy on gold may exert pressure on domestic jewelry demand, as consumers will bear additional tax costs. However, the steady rise in gold prices over the past three years may have reduced consumer sensitivity to price changes [16] - The new tax policy does not affect investment products such as gold bars sold by SGE members, gold ETFs, and accumulated gold, although providers may adjust their buy/sell policies based on their circumstances [16]