市场氛围偏空 沪铜偏弱震荡【11月21日SHFE市场收盘评论】

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a downward trend, influenced by weak stock market sentiment and concerns over liquidity risks, despite a slight improvement in demand due to lower copper prices [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Shanghai copper opened lower and subsequently fluctuated within a narrow range, closing down by 0.83% [1] - The overall market atmosphere is poor, with both U.S. and A-share markets under pressure, leading to a cautious risk appetite [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September showed mixed results, with the market awaiting further data guidance [1] - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials have been generally hawkish, leading to a significant decline in market expectations for a rate cut in December [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global copper mine supply remains tight, with domestic refined copper production showing a slight decline in October, although the decrease is limited [1] - High copper prices have previously suppressed downstream demand, but there has been a slight improvement in demand as prices have recently softened [1] Group 4: Price Outlook - Jinrui Futures indicates that the non-farm data may lead to a retreat in rate cut expectations, suggesting that copper price drivers have not exceeded historical levels [1] - The short-term price trend is expected to remain high with fluctuations, and there is no significant downward pressure anticipated [1] - Attention should be paid to the impact of Indonesian mines on the non-U.S. refined copper inventory [1]