布米普特拉北京投资基金管理有限公司：美联储12月降息存变数

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing significant internal disagreement regarding whether to continue interest rate cuts in December, leading to a substantial cooling of market expectations for a rate cut in that month [1]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - In October's monetary policy meeting, the Federal Reserve voted 10 to 2 to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, lowering the target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the second consecutive rate cut of the year [3]. - There was no consensus among decision-makers regarding this rate cut, with one member advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points and another suggesting to maintain the current rate [3]. - The meeting minutes revealed differing views on the December policy direction, with some members believing a further cut would be appropriate if economic performance meets expectations, while a larger number favored keeping rates unchanged for the remainder of the year [3]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and Challenges - The disagreement stems from varying assessments of the economic situation, with some officials noting a cooling labor market, while others are concerned about inflation remaining above the 2% target [5]. - Core inflation remains high, with rising goods inflation offsetting the decline in housing services inflation, complicating the Fed's dual mandate of supporting the economy and controlling inflation [5]. - The recent 44-day government shutdown has further complicated decision-making, as key economic data was missing, leading to reliance on fragmented private sector data and corporate surveys [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the release of the meeting minutes, market expectations for a December rate cut have significantly decreased, reflecting the growing internal divisions within the Fed and increasing uncertainty regarding the policy path [7]. - As the December meeting approaches, the Fed's ability to balance conflicting pressures will be a focal point for the market, with the lack of internal consensus making this task more complex [7]. - The decision-makers need to find an appropriate balance between supporting the economy and curbing inflation, which is complicated by the absence of a unified stance [7].