Core Viewpoint - Q3 2025 performance of Qifu Technology aligns with expectations, showing stable loan issuance and revenue growth despite regulatory uncertainties [1][2] Financial Performance - Loan issuance in Q3 2025 reached 83.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2% [1] - Revenue for Q3 2025 was 5.21 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19% and stable quarter-on-quarter performance [1] - Non-GAAP net profit decreased by 17% year-on-year and 18% quarter-on-quarter to 1.51 billion yuan, meeting prior expectations [1] Development Trends - Economic and regulatory uncertainties are increasing short- to medium-term operational pressures, although new loan quality shows early signs of improvement [1] - Key economic indicators include: - Net service fee rate at approximately 4.5% [1] - Average product pricing decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 20.9% [1] - Funding costs remained low, supported by accelerated ABS issuance [1] - 90-day overdue rate increased by 0.12 percentage points to 2.09% [1] - D1 overdue rate rose by 0.4 percentage points to 5.5% [1] - C-M2 increased by 15 basis points to 0.79% [1] Strategic Initiatives - Long-term industry landscape optimization and the company's diversified strategy are expected to support growth [2] - The company is enhancing its "AI + Banking" strategy, with technology solutions driving a 218% quarter-on-quarter increase in loan volume [2] - The company is also exploring international business opportunities to expand its market presence [2] Shareholder Returns - The company has completed a share repurchase plan of 280 million USD out of a 450 million USD limit, with plans to restart buybacks post-earnings report [2] - Long-term goals include gradually increasing dividends to enhance shareholder returns [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been reduced by 10% and 45% to 6.4 billion yuan and 4.2 billion yuan, respectively [2] - Current trading multiples for US and Hong Kong stocks are at 4.0x/5.9x and 3.2x/4.7x for 2025/2026 P/E [2] - Target prices have been lowered by 34% and 41% to 32 USD and 115 HKD, respectively, with potential upside of 42.7% and 49.1% [2]
奇富科技(03660.HK)季报点评：监管调整下短期经营仍承压 长期增长根基坚实