黄金格局生变？俄央行首次出售实物黄金“弥补预算”，“稳定币老大”囤金规模逼近小央行

Core Insights - The global gold market is undergoing a historic restructuring, with Russia's central bank confirming the sale of physical gold reserves to address budget needs, marking the first such action from a country holding over 2300 tons of gold [1][4] - Tether, the largest stablecoin issuer, has emerged as a significant non-sovereign gold holder, accumulating at least 116 tons of gold by the end of Q3, which is comparable to the holdings of small central banks [1][5][6] Group 1: Russia's Gold Sales - The decision by the Russian central bank to sell gold reserves highlights the ongoing financial pressure from Western sanctions, which have frozen nearly half of Russia's foreign exchange reserves, totaling around €300 billion [4] - Since the escalation of the Ukraine crisis in February 2022, Russian gold bars have been banned from entering Western markets, prompting the country to stimulate domestic demand by removing VAT on retail gold purchases [4] - Russian consumers are expected to purchase approximately 62.2 tons of retail gold this year, reflecting a shift in savings preferences due to reduced convenience of Western currencies [4] Group 2: Tether's Gold Accumulation - Tether has rapidly become a key player in the gold market, with Jefferies reporting that the stablecoin issuer has significantly increased its gold holdings, contributing to rising gold prices [5][6] - Tether's CEO has indicated plans to purchase around 100 tons of gold this year, with the company holding gold worth approximately $8 billion in a dedicated vault in Switzerland [6] - The speed of Tether's gold accumulation is notable, with an increase of about 26 tons in Q3 alone, representing around 2% of global demand [7] Group 3: Future Projections and Strategies - Jefferies analysts predict that Tether will continue to increase its gold holdings, estimating that if half of its projected $15 billion profit in 2025 is invested in gold, it could add nearly 60 tons annually [7] - Tether's investments in the broader gold ecosystem, including over $300 million in royalty and streaming companies, indicate a strategic expansion in the gold sector [7] - The planned launch of a new stablecoin, USAT, which does not require gold reserves, introduces uncertainty regarding the long-term demand for USDT and gold [7]