12月降息有望？美联储威廉姆斯：“短期内”仍有降息空间

Core Viewpoint - The President of the New York Federal Reserve, Williams, indicates that there is still room for interest rate cuts in the short term due to a weakening labor market and reduced inflation risks [1][2] Group 1: Labor Market and Inflation Risks - Williams notes an increase in downside risks to employment as the labor market cools, while upside risks to inflation have decreased [1][2] - The core inflation is on a downward trend, and there are no signs of second-round effects from tariffs impacting current inflation rates [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - Current monetary policy is considered to have a certain degree of tightness, but its intensity has lessened compared to recent measures, suggesting potential adjustments to the federal funds rate target range [1] - Market expectations indicate a 40% probability of a rate cut at the December meeting, reflecting uncertainty among Federal Reserve officials regarding further cuts [2] Group 3: Tariffs and Inflation Impact - Trade tariffs are estimated to have contributed approximately 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points to the current inflation rate, but Williams does not foresee any significant second-round price effects from these tariffs [2] - The Consumer Price Index in the U.S. rose by 3% over the past year, raising concerns among officials about inflation management [2] Group 4: Long-term Inflation Goals - The Federal Reserve aims to restore inflation to a 2% target while avoiding unnecessary risks to the labor market [2] - Williams anticipates that tariffs will continue to exert upward pressure on prices over the next year, but expects inflation to return to the 2% target by 2027 [2]