“抛售日本”才刚刚开始？日本遭遇股债汇“三杀”

Core Viewpoint - Japan is facing significant market turmoil due to a combination of aggressive fiscal policies and expectations of prolonged monetary easing, leading to a sell-off in stocks, bonds, and the yen [1][2][3]. Economic Stimulus Plan - The Japanese government is preparing an economic stimulus plan exceeding 21.3 trillion yen (approximately 135.4 billion USD), marking the largest such measure since the pandemic began [5]. - This plan is being implemented despite Japan's economy contracting in the third quarter, which raises concerns about increasing debt burdens [1][8]. Market Reactions - As of November 21, the Nikkei 225 index fell by 2.4% or 1198.06 points, while the yen traded at 156.69 to the dollar, showing a slight recovery from previous lows [2]. - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds decreased by 2.04% to 1.779%, indicating some market stabilization after previous spikes [2]. Debt Concerns - Japan's debt burden has reached 250% of its GDP, with interest payments consuming about 23% of annual tax revenue, raising alarms about fiscal sustainability [4]. - Analysts warn that a 100 basis point increase in bond yields could add over 2.8 trillion yen to Japan's annual financing costs [4]. Monetary Policy Dilemma - The Bank of Japan is hesitant to raise interest rates, which complicates the balance between fiscal expansion and monetary normalization [2][3]. - There are fears that if the government and central bank do not manage this balance effectively, it could lead to a significant sell-off in the yen and Japanese bonds, impacting global liquidity [2][6]. Global Implications - The volatility in Japan's debt and currency markets raises concerns about potential spillover effects on global markets, particularly if Japanese investors begin to unwind yen carry trades [6][7]. - Analysts suggest that a sudden tightening of monetary policy or aggressive currency interventions could trigger widespread asset sell-offs, affecting global risk assets [7][6]. Economic Performance - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% in the third quarter, marking the first negative growth since early 2024, driven by weak domestic and external demand [8][9]. - The impact of U.S. tariff policies on Japan's export-driven sectors, particularly automotive, has been significant, contributing to the economic slowdown [9].