Oracle(US:ORCL) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-21 15:11Core Insights - Oracle's stock dropped over 4% to $201.44 after issuing $18 billion in investment-grade bonds to increase AI spending, with related banks initiating a $38 billion debt issuance for Oracle's data centers [1] - Since reaching an all-time high on September 10, Oracle's stock has fallen 33% as investors reassess the impact of aggressive capital expenditures on its balance sheet and how it will finance these expenditures [1] - Oracle forecasts capital expenditures of $35 billion for the current fiscal year, primarily for its cloud business, but this spending is negatively affecting its balance sheet, with expected free cash flow of negative $9.7 billion this year [1] - The company is projected to see further declines in free cash flow over the next two fiscal years, potentially reaching negative $24.3 billion by fiscal year 2028 [1] - S&P Global Ratings has revised Oracle's outlook to "negative" due to anticipated capital expenditures and debt issuance aimed at funding accelerated growth in AI infrastructure, leading to tighter credit conditions [1] Leverage Risks - Oracle's five-year credit default swaps (CDS), reflecting leverage risk, have surged to their highest level in three years [2] - A global macro strategist noted that the rise in Oracle's CDS is not surprising given the company's significant capital expenditures financed through debt, indicating potential for greater stock volatility [2]