沈文忠：晶硅电池技术仍有很长的生命周期

Core Insights - The solar photovoltaic (PV) industry has become the cheapest energy source globally, with the lowest international electricity cost at 1 cent per kilowatt-hour and around 2 cents in high-quality regions in China, showcasing strong competitiveness [1] - The dominance of crystalline silicon technology is expected to continue for the next decade, with no superior alternatives in sight, emphasizing the need for optimization in this area to maintain cost advantages [1][2] - The future trend in the PV industry will focus on reducing silver usage in cell production, with copper, aluminum, and nickel emerging as alternative materials due to their cost-effectiveness and sufficient conductivity [1][2] Industry Developments - The current market share of crystalline silicon cells in China is 98%, with a production capacity of over 3 million tons of silicon, which is crucial for maintaining low prices in the PV sector [1] - TOPCon technology is currently the market leader, but saturation is expected in the next 1 to 2 years, leading to potential idle capacity [2] - Significant R&D investments are necessary for TOPCon companies to enhance competitiveness through technology upgrades and optimize equipment paths to sustain cost advantages [2] Future Trends - The transition towards metalization with cheaper alternatives like copper is anticipated to gain momentum in the next five years, as silver's high cost significantly impacts overall PV production expenses [1] - The integration of perovskite technology with crystalline silicon cells is viewed as a necessary path for future development, although single-junction perovskite lacks competitiveness on its own [3]