双碳研究 | 欧洲放缓调门：稀土博弈主导权仍在中国

Core Points - The EU has softened its rhetoric towards China in hopes of extending rare earth export licenses from three months to one year, which increases the likelihood of Chinese exports but does not change the dependency of the supply chain [1][2] - China's export licensing system remains a critical element, retaining the authority to review end-users, approve applications, and suspend shipments for security reasons, particularly regarding "military end-use" [2][3] - The diplomatic shift highlights Europe's vulnerability; without domestic refining capacity, the EU must negotiate for resources, falling short of true supply chain "de-risking" [1][3] Industry Insights - The extension of export licenses is seen as a means to provide supply certainty rather than independence, ensuring production continuity but not security [3][4] - The article emphasizes that describing this situation as a "breakthrough" is overly optimistic, as China has not confirmed the extension, and even with annual licenses, there is no guarantee of export volumes [5][6] - China's dominance in the rare earth supply chain is underscored, controlling over 80% of refining capacity and more than 90% of magnet production, while Europe's own capacity remains in a fragile early stage [5][6] Conclusion - The EU's need to soften its stance to secure temporary relief underscores the fragility of Western supply chains, with China's licensing system defining global rare earth flows rather than market competition [6]