美联储12月降息预期骤降，白宫喊话：这时收手非常糟！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing a significant internal divide regarding whether to cut interest rates in December, with differing opinions among its members leading to a complex decision-making environment [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Divisions - The FOMC is divided into three camps: dovish members favoring rate cuts to support the labor market, hawkish members concerned about inflation, and moderate members advocating for patience [3][11]. - Vice Chairman Jefferson's recent comments highlight the dual risks of persistent inflation and weakening employment, complicating the policy response [3]. Group 2: Lack of Key Economic Data - The absence of critical economic data, such as the October non-farm payroll report and the CPI, creates an "information vacuum" for the Federal Reserve ahead of its December meeting [5]. - The delay in the release of the November non-farm report until after the Fed's decision adds to the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook [5]. Group 3: Market Expectations - Market expectations for a rate cut in December have diminished, with the implied probability dropping from 90% to around 30% in recent weeks [7]. - Concerns over inflation have led to a significant decrease in the market's consensus on the likelihood of a rate cut, reflecting a shift in sentiment among traders [7]. Group 4: Political Pressure - White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett has publicly called for a rate cut, citing the negative impact of the government shutdown on economic growth [9]. - Hassett predicts a 1.5 percentage point decline in GDP due to the shutdown, arguing that now is not the right time for the Fed to pause rate cuts [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a data-dependent approach to monetary policy, with ongoing divisions among officials likely to persist [13]. - The potential for a decline in interest rates remains, but the timing may be adjusted based on evolving economic conditions and inflation trends [13][15].