比特币跌破八万，行情大变，抄底机会还是风险？

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin experienced a significant price drop from a historical high of $126,272.76 on October 6 to below $90,000 by November 18, leading to a market sentiment shift from extreme greed to extreme fear [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The cryptocurrency market saw a total market cap decline of over $1.2 trillion within six weeks, indicating a more severe downturn than anticipated [3]. - The Crypto Fear Greed Index fell to 13, a level often associated with short-term market bottoms, prompting traders to closely monitor future movements [3]. Institutional Behavior - A key factor in the market decline was the withdrawal of institutional buyers, with over $25 billion flowing into Bitcoin ETFs earlier in the year, but these large buyers have recently retreated [5]. - The lack of support from ETF allocators and corporate finance departments has contributed to the market's vulnerability [5]. Leverage and Market Pressure - Deleveraging actions have spread throughout the market, with significant reductions in open interest for Ethereum and smaller altcoins, indicating a rapid exit of leveraged funds [7]. - The decline in open interest for smaller tokens like Solana has been particularly pronounced, with some holdings dropping by over 50% [7]. Price Support Levels - Bitcoin is facing critical support at $93,000; if this level is breached, the next significant support could be around $78,000, which may attract remaining sell orders [8]. - Historical volatility patterns suggest that while Bitcoin has experienced severe price corrections in the past, the current situation may reflect a structural change rather than a cyclical bear market [8]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The current market turmoil is influenced by four main factors: the movement of institutional funds, macroeconomic interest rate expectations, options expiration, and the overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency space [8]. - The upcoming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can stabilize, with institutional fund movements and macroeconomic conditions playing a pivotal role [8].