Bill Ackman：加密货币市场动荡正波及“两房”股价

Core Insights - Bill Ackman warns that forced liquidations and margin calls in the cryptocurrency market are leading to sell-offs in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stocks [1][2] - Ackman acknowledges that the exposure of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to cryptocurrencies is not directly reflected in their financial statements, but rather hidden within their shareholder base [2] Group 1: Company Exposure to Cryptocurrency - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stocks are being affected by investors who hold leveraged positions in cryptocurrencies, leading to forced sales of these stocks when cryptocurrency prices drop significantly [2] - Ackman states that although his hedge fund does not hold Bitcoin, it effectively holds "stock market proxies" for Bitcoin in the short term [2] Group 2: Financial Health of Freddie Mac - Freddie Mac shows mixed financial health with a net profit margin of 46.89% and a free cash flow yield of 297.1%, indicating strong profitability and cash generation efficiency [3] - However, Freddie Mac has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 49.99, indicating significant leverage, and a negative earnings per share of -0.02 USD, with a modest revenue growth rate of 2.9% over the past three years [3] Group 3: Valuation and Market Risks - Freddie Mac's valuation is considered "significantly overvalued," with a forward P/E ratio of 2.31 and a price-to-sales ratio of 1.06, suggesting limited growth potential [4] - The company faces multiple risks, including exposure to interest rate fluctuations and regulatory changes, with an Altman Z-Score of 0 indicating potential financial distress [4] - The stock's beta of 2.24 suggests it has a higher volatility compared to the market average, categorizing it as a high-risk asset [4]