全球股市大跌，瑞银大摩唱多，逆势看好中国股市

Group 1 - The global financial markets experienced a sudden downturn on November 18 and 19, with major indices like the Nikkei and Korean stock market plummeting, alongside declines in precious metals and Bitcoin [1] - The catalyst for this market turbulence included a significant drop in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with the likelihood for a December cut falling below 50%, prompting investors to reassess risk and return [1] - Japan's bond market saw massive sell-offs, with the 10-year government bond yield soaring above 1.75%, nearing levels not seen since 2008, which could impact global liquidity and trigger a domino effect [1] Group 2 - The Chinese market was also affected, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks following the international trend, leading to a three-day decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the first time since mid-September [3] - Despite the negative sentiment, UBS released a 2026 outlook report expressing optimism, predicting the MSCI China Index could reach 100 points by the end of 2026, representing a potential increase of about 14% [3] - UBS highlighted sectors such as internet, hardware technology, and brokerage firms as promising, citing that anti-involution policies and declining depreciation expenses could enhance corporate profitability [3] Group 3 - UBS noted that the global pullback in AI stocks might negatively impact Chinese tech stocks, but they believe the correlation is lower compared to countries like South Korea, suggesting that domestic developments could mitigate external shocks [5] - On the corporate front, Baidu reported a quarterly revenue of 31.2 billion yuan, with core revenue at 24.7 billion yuan, and a notable over 50% year-on-year growth in AI business revenue [6] - The overall market saw approximately 4,100 stocks decline, with previously hot sectors like energy storage and lithium experiencing corrections due to prior excessive gains and subsequent fund withdrawals [6] Group 4 - The combination of news and capital flow led to a sharp market turn, with the sell-off of Japanese government bonds causing global interest rate fluctuations and the cooling of AI concepts triggering a chain reaction in tech stocks [8] - Foreign investment banks' optimistic outlook contrasts sharply with the short-term panic in the market, suggesting that there may be good earnings support in the coming year, providing a reference point for long-term investors [8] - Investors are advised to closely monitor data, policies, and sentiment, as the market's short-term volatility can be easily amplified, while foreign institutions are betting on a recovery in earnings by 2026 [10]