2025年第四季投资展望报告：把握人工智能崛起及减息机遇

Core Insights - The investment outlook for Q4 2025 highlights a dual characteristic of a clearer policy direction and accelerated technological innovation, with the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve being the main market drivers [1][10] - Despite uncertainties from policy fluctuations and economic data, risk assets still have upward potential, necessitating investment strategies focused on trend identification and diversification [1][10] Economic Environment - The global economy shows significant resilience, with the U.S. economy performing better than expected and corporate earnings exceeding market forecasts at a near historical high [1][10] - The technology and data economy, while only accounting for 8.5% of U.S. GDP, represents 48% of the S&P 500 index market capitalization, becoming a crucial support for the stock market [1][10] Artificial Intelligence Impact - AI has entered a phase of large-scale application and commercialization, acting as a growth engine across various industries, including chip manufacturing, cloud infrastructure, retail, and logistics [2][3] - The investment scale in AI continues to expand, providing strong momentum for global stock markets, with China standing out in AI innovation and patent positioning, making its companies attractive compared to global peers [2][3] Asian Market Opportunities - The Asian market benefits from favorable factors, including supportive policies and structural trends, creating investment opportunities [2][3] - China's supply-side reforms and AI innovations are boosting market confidence, while Singapore's stock market is favored for its defensive characteristics and high dividend yield [2][3] Investment Strategies - Investment strategies should focus on four core areas: positioning in quality bonds to capture interest rate cut benefits, seizing global expansion opportunities in AI, diversifying risks through alternative investments and volatility strategies, and focusing on favorable Asian policies and structural growth [2][3] - Asset allocation should emphasize U.S., China, and Singapore stock markets, with a preference for investment-grade bonds, while balancing growth and value styles to manage potential market volatility [2][3] Emerging Trends - Social evolution and climate action themes are also showing investment potential, with streaming and subscription economies expanding, and renewable energy and circular economy trends becoming long-term focuses [3][4] - Overall, the investment approach for Q4 should be based on trend opportunities, with flexible adjustments and diversified layouts to navigate market uncertainties [3][4]