21评论丨日本股债汇为何连日齐跌？

Core Viewpoint - Japan's stock prices, yen exchange rate, and government bonds have all experienced significant declines, attributed to the economic policies of Prime Minister Kishi Sanae, leading to market disappointment and concerns over fiscal sustainability [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Nikkei average fell below 50,000 points on November 18 and dropped to around 48,000 points by November 21 [1]. - The yen depreciated over 6% following Kishi Sanae's appointment, reaching an exchange rate of 157 yen per dollar by November 21 [1]. - Long-term government bond yields exceeded 1.83% on November 20, marking a decline in trading prices to levels not seen in 17 years [1]. Group 2: Economic Policy Analysis - Initial optimism surrounding Kishi Sanae's economic policies, dubbed "Sanae Economics," has waned as the current economic conditions differ significantly from those in 2013 [3]. - Japan's national debt exceeds twice its GDP, limiting the government's ability to implement aggressive fiscal and monetary policies [3]. - The government's recent economic measures, including a supplementary budget of 21.3 trillion yen, have raised concerns about fiscal discipline and sustainability [4][5]. Group 3: Fiscal Challenges - The supplementary budget's scale is unprecedented compared to pre-COVID levels, reflecting Kishi Sanae's commitment to active fiscal policies [4]. - Critics argue that the government's focus on crisis management investments, which constitute one-third of the supplementary budget, detracts from addressing rising prices effectively [5]. - The lack of fiscal discipline may lead to increased government debt and further depreciation of the yen, exacerbating inflationary pressures [6]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - Market pressures have prompted Kishi Sanae to indicate a willingness to allow the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, with expectations for a decision as early as December [6]. - Persistent domestic inflation is seen as a primary reason for potential interest rate hikes, which could help stabilize the yen [6].