多边贸易体系面临更大重塑压力

Core Insights - The World Trade Organization's report indicates a significant shift in G20 trade policies, with restrictive measures now covering more trade volume than facilitative measures for the first time since the monitoring mechanism was established in 2009, highlighting a rise in global protectionism [2][6] Group 1: Trade Facilitation Measures - The G20 implemented 184 trade facilitation measures, the second highest in the last decade, covering a trade volume of $2.05 trillion, nearly doubling from the previous period's $1.07 trillion [3] - Of these measures, 129 were related to import facilitation, accounting for 70% and covering $1.90 trillion, which is 10.5% of the G20's total imports [3] - These measures included lowering or eliminating import and export tariffs, simplifying customs procedures, and easing export quantity restrictions, which helped alleviate supply chain pressures and reduce production costs [3] Group 2: Trade Restrictive Measures - The report recorded 185 trade restrictive or potentially restrictive measures, the highest since monitoring began in 2009, covering a trade volume of $2.90 trillion, significantly up from $829 billion in the previous period [4] - Import-restricted trade volume reached $2.60 trillion, more than four times the previous period's $598 billion, with $2.35 trillion directly related to U.S. trade policies since early 2025 [4][5] - Types of restrictive measures included increased import tariffs, complex customs procedures, and setting limits on import and export quantities, with the U.S. being a key driver of these measures [5] Group 3: Long-term Structural Adjustments in Global Trade Policy - The increase in restrictive measures over facilitative ones reflects a systemic spillover effect rather than isolated actions by individual countries, indicating a gradual rise in protectionist policies [6] - The surge in restrictive trade policies and the spread of protectionism are contributing to greater uncertainty in global trade, with potential risks including supply chain reconfiguration and increased regionalism [6] - The growing number of restrictive measures is prompting countries to strengthen regional trade arrangements and bilateral agreements, which may further undermine the relative position of multilateralism in global trade [6]