日本股债汇为何连日齐跌？

Core Viewpoint - Japan's stock prices, yen exchange rate, and government bonds have all seen significant declines, attributed to the economic policies of Prime Minister Kishi Sanae, leading to market disappointment and concerns over fiscal sustainability [1][2][5] Group 1: Market Performance - The Nikkei average fell below 50,000 points on November 18 and dropped to around 48,000 points by November 21 [1] - The yen depreciated over 6% following Kishi Sanae's appointment, reaching an exchange rate of 157 yen per dollar by November 21 [1] - Long-term government bond yields exceeded 1.83% on November 20, with trading prices hitting levels not seen in 17 years [1] Group 2: Economic Policy Analysis - Initial optimism around Kishi Sanae's economic policies, dubbed "Sanae Economics," has waned as the current economic conditions differ significantly from those in 2013 [2] - Japan's national debt exceeds twice its GDP, limiting the government's ability to implement aggressive fiscal and monetary policies [2] - The government's recent economic measures, including a supplementary budget of 21.3 trillion yen, have raised concerns about fiscal discipline and sustainability [3][4] Group 3: Fiscal Challenges - The supplementary budget's size reflects Kishi Sanae's commitment to active fiscal policies, but critics argue it fails to address rising prices effectively [4] - The focus on crisis management investments, which constitute one-third of the supplementary budget, may exacerbate fiscal issues rather than resolve them [4][5] - The lack of fiscal discipline could lead to increased government debt and further depreciation of the yen, compounding inflationary pressures [5] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - Market pressures have prompted Kishi Sanae to indicate a willingness to allow the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, with expectations for a decision as early as December [5] - Persistent domestic inflation is a key reason for potential interest rate hikes, which may help stabilize the yen [5] - However, the effectiveness of monetary policy is contingent on a shift away from the current aggressive fiscal strategies [5]